Sandy McGregor
Articles by Sandy McGregor
The prospects for global growth
The post-pandemic bounce back of the global economy is losing momentum, and many fear that developed economies may slip into recession.
The consequences of South Africa’s greylisting
As anticipated, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has added South Africa to the list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring, the greylist, with...
The threat of greylisting
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) was established in 1989 to coordinate an international effort to combat money laundering. As South Africa’s economy is...
Economic update: A post-pandemic new normal
2022 saw a massive appreciation of the US dollar against all other currencies and the highest inflation since the early 1980s. These trends, which so dominat...
Global growth prospects continue to deteriorate
During the past quarter inflation has remained elevated. In the US the latest print for August was 8.3%. In Europe it was 10.0% in September. Even though in...
Whither inflation?
In the past 12 months , global inflation has surged. Sandy McGregor discusses the increasingly turbulent response of the financial markets.
The transition into the post-pandemic world
It is remarkable the extent to which the future is hidden from us. We all conduct our lives largely in terms of our experiences in the recent past, assuming...
Global economic recovery slower and more complex than expected
The global recovery from the severe economic contraction in the first half of 2020, which followed the initial outbreak of the pandemic, has proved to be bot...
Economic recovery accompanied by a surge in inflation
With increasing vaccinations economic activity is returning to pre-pandemic levels and, while there may be further waves of infection, governments are learni...
Inflation returns
Prices are on the up in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The question is, will deflationary conditions resume as global economic conditions normalise or is...
Global recovery underway
The world is recovering from the pandemic and 2021 should see strong global economic growth. The epicentre of the recovery is now the United States, where th...
2021 Budget signals hope for SA taxpayers
Minimal tax measures aim to bring relief to taxpayers and bolster economy.
The state of the economy
In a recent Q&A-style webinar hosted by Allan Gray’s Vuyo Nogantshi, Allan Gray’s Sandy McGregor and the Reserve Bank’s Rashad Cassim and David Fowkes examin...
America as seen from afar
The United States is of critical importance to all investors regardless of where they are domiciled. It is the world’s largest economy, the powerhouse of...
The impact of COVID-19's second wave
The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted the global recovery following the severe economic contraction experienced during the second quarter ...
The dangers of printing money
Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT as it is often called, is a new term for an old idea. Its proponents argue that a state which issues fiat money does not have ...
Will prescribed assets be used as a policy tool?
Reports that the government plans to compel pension funds to invest in state assets and projects have understandably caused alarm among investors, spurring...
Investment challenges older investors face
Older investors face a host of challenges entirely different to those faced by their young selves. Sandy McGregor offers a wise perspective for those of this...
COVID-19 continues to rock the global economy
It seems that, with a few exceptions, such as the southern United States, in the Northern Hemisphere the COVID-19 pandemic is well past its peak. Lockdowns a...
The monetary and fiscal response to the COVID-19 crisis
The Coronavirus pandemic has caused a massive disruption of global economic activity without peacetime precedent. In a presentation via Zoom webinar, Sandy...
The world after the COVID-19 pandemic
We are witnessing a global economic collapse without precedent in modern times. As investors we must think about what the world will look like when the...
Impact of Moody's downgrade
As a consequence of the decision by Moody’s to lower South Africa’s credit rating from Ba1 to Baa3, all three leading rating agencies now rate South African...
A downgrade imposes a cost on all South Africans
Reports showed this week that South Africa slipped into its second recession in two years in the final quarter of 2019. Will Moody’s now be even more incline...
2020 Budget: Managing the wage bill and fixing Eskom's credibility
The National Treasury faces formidable challenges in preparing the Budget for the 2020/21 fiscal year, which will be presented on 26 February. Projections...
Inflation
Inflation is a phenomenon of great importance to investors. It is subject to intense scrutiny but is not well understood. Sandy McGregor offers his perspecti...
Global growth slows
Over the past year, global economic growth has slowed. International trade volumes have contracted. This slowdown has many causes but has been significantly...
What can be done to improve South Africa’s prospects?
When the National Treasury first published its Economic Policy Paper, there was widespread puzzlement as to why yet another such report was needed. It repeat...
An age of anxiety
We are living in an age of anxiety. After decades in which the norm has been optimism, everywhere market participants are extremely nervous about evolving an...
Economic update: A state of stagnation
Global economic conditions continue to deteriorate but so far, no major economy has entered a recession. Business conditions in Europe and Japan are best...
Trade wars
In recent months, we have observed increasing uncertainty and concern among our clients about what impact rising international tensions, particularly the tra...
Global business conditions deteriorate
Negative news about the global economy persists. Purchasing manager indices continue to signal a widespread deterioration in business conditions. Even in the...
Global slowdown continues to take its toll
The synchronous global slowdown, which commenced in the last quarter of 2018, continues to take its toll. While Europe is not in recession, it has returned t...
South Africa's fiscal dilemma
Faced with sky-high debt, a stagnant economy and disappointing tax collections, South Africa is on an unsustainable fiscal path. Difficult choices have to be...
Global economy losing momentum
After two years of strong synchronous growth the global economy is losing momentum. Almost without exception the most recent purchasing manager’s indices are...
Global growth accelerates but emerging markets under pressure
Following a slower first quarter, the rate of global economic growth accelerated during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with Europe being the only notable...
Increasing policy uncertainty
With few exceptions, notably India, most countries experienced slower economic growth in the first quarter of 2018. Anecdotal evidence suggests that that the...
Approaching a tipping point?
After a strong start to the year, global investors have been spooked by a diverse combination of developments, including a slowdown in global economic...
Business confidence improves in South Africa
After 18 months of accelerating growth, the momentum of the expansion of the global economy slowed in the first quarter of 2018. It is noteworthy that an...
Fixing the South African economy
If we can make necessary changes domestically, favourable global business conditions will support a rapid economic turnaround. Now that the ANC conference is...
What can be done to address SA’s fiscal crisis?
Global economic activity continued to gain momentum in the last quarter of 2017. Global purchasing manager’s indices, which are a good barometer of current a...
Facing a fiscal crisis
The synchronised global economic expansion continues to gain momentum. World trade is growing and increasing demand is putting upward pressure on commodity...
The economics of taxation
An efficient tax system is a necessary feature of a modern state. Taxes have always been a focus of political concern, even when, by modern standards...
SA economy in the doldrums as the rest of the world picks up
Since January, domestic demand in South Africa has been very weak, the clearest evidence of which has been poor retail sales. The consumer is no longer in a...
South Africa at a political crossroad
The political events of the last 10 days, and the resulting ratings downgrade by S&P Global Ratings, have seriously eroded investor confidence in South Afric...
The winds of change
While the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States was not expected by investors, it does not seem to have been unwelcome: both t...
A changing world
The political shocks of 2016 are a manifestation of rising public discontent about prevailing economic and social conditions. Sandy McGregor provides some...
The economic consequences of political decisions
The vote by the British electorate in support of leaving the European Union (EU) took markets by surprise. The immediate impact was a strengthening of the US...
Gold: A history of its price
Inventories play a significant role in the pricing of commodities: when they are low prices tend to rise, while excessive inventories depress prices. However...
The triumph of the bureaucrats
There is a widespread lament that economic growth is disappointing. While demographics and structural problems are largely to blame, the increasing cost of...
Secular stagnation: The new normal?
Economists are engaged in an interesting debate about economic growth and what has been described as 'secular stagnation'. The issue has received widespread...
The collapse of the oil price and its consequences
The dramatic collapse of oil prices at the end of last year caught most market participants by surprise. For three and a half years, between February 2011 an...
What's wrong with the South African economy
After growing strongly for 10 years, since 2012 the South African economy has been stagnating, which prompts the question: What has gone wrong and how can th...
China's Malthusian challenge
Two years since the global financial crisis and commodity prices are back at the record levels of June 2008. This growth has been about five years quicker th...
Deflation
It seems the world may divide into two distinct camps: the mature economies gripped by deflation and stagnation, and the emerging markets, which continue to...
The triumph of the markets
It is the nature of markets to reward success and eliminate what is unsustainable. During the past year we have seen a dramatic manifestation of this process...
